INDUSTRY INSIGHT
Overconfidence, assertiveness and why the confidence myth misleads organisations
Confidence is still treated as a shortcut for leadership potential, yet research shows that organisations consistently mistake overconfidence for competence while misreading more calibrated voices. The real problem is not women’ s confidence, but the systems that reward certainty in some and penalise it in others – creating both inequality and strategic risk at the top. Professor Ginka Toegel, Professor and Author, discusses why the confidence myth misleads organisations.
In many boardrooms, the picture of a‘ highpotential leader’ is remarkably consistent. The ideal candidate speaks fluently, answers quickly, appears certain and takes the floor with ease. Confidence is treated as evidence of competence; assertiveness is taken as proof of impact. Yet the research tells a different story.
Psychologists have described overconfidence as one of the most pervasive biases in human judgement, and it is particularly evident at the top of organisations. Large studies of chief financial officers and CEOs show that their‘ high-confidence’ forecasts are far less accurate than they believe, and that overconfident leaders are more likely to pursue valuedestroying investments and riskier financing structures. In the short-term they can look impressive; in the long-term their misplaced certainty turns into write-offs, restructures and missed alternatives. www. intelligentcxo. com
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